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Crude oil primers peaked at fresh yearly highs, easing modestly ahead of…

Crude oil primers peaked at fresh yearly highs, easing modestly ahead of the close

Market Focus US equities traded in a narrow range as momentum ran out of fuels. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index continues to make new highs to 14,274, lifted …

20210624
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Market Focus

US equities traded in a narrow range as momentum ran out of fuels. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index continues to make new highs to 14,274, lifted by a rally in Tesla Inc. On the other hand, S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index closed in the red, dipped 0.11% and 0.21% respectively.

The well-respected Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan noted that the economy will likely outperform Federal Reserve’s expectation, leading to a possible early start of its tapering program. He explicitly said “I think we’d be far better off, from a risk-management point of view, beginning to adjust these purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities” during an interview with Bloomberg News. Wednesday’s upbeat manufacturing PMI of 62.6, the highest figure since 2007, further underpins a strong economic recovery in the US.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said her department may start to ease emergency measures to avoid breaching the US debt limit as soon as August. ‘Suspension of debt limit’ means the Treasury Department can borrow as much as they need to pay off its current debts and obligations. With the current suspension set to expire on July 31, Yellen urged Congress to extend the suspension or increase the ceiling, and warned failure to do so would have catastrophic economic consequences.

Main Pairs Movement

Major pairs are playing tug of war between gains and losses while trading at familiar levels on Thursday. Sentiment led the way, with currencies following the lead of stocks. USD fell throughout the first half of the day, regaining most of its loss at the final trading session of the day. The exception was USD/JPY which extended to a fresh yearly high of 111.10.

Markit released its June PMIs for all major economies. In general, the manufacturing sector recovery keeps outpacing that on the services sector. Despite mixed numbers, all figures indicated economic expansion.

The euro pair ended the day around 1.1930, slightly lower than yesterday, while cable settled around 1.3970, holding on to modest intraday gains. Commodity-linked currencies advanced against the greenback for a third consecutive day due to rising commodity prices, oil price as an example.

Gold once surged to $ 1,794.98 a troy ounce but changed course during the US afternoon and appeared doji at the end of the day.

Crude oil primers peaked at fresh yearly highs, easing modestly ahead of the close. WTI settled above $ 73.00 a barrel, as well as Brent touched $76 after the EIA reported that stockpiles decreased by 7.6 million barrels in the week ending June 18, better than anticipated.

The Bank of England is having a monetary policy meeting, although no fireworks are expected this time, as the bank won’t publish fresh macroeconomic projections, while there won’t be a speech from Governor Bailey. 

Technical Analysis

USDJPY (Four- Hour Chart)

USDJPY edges higher as Bank of Japan points to persistently low inflationary pressure while Powell cools down inflationary concern. On the four-hour chart, USDJPY is bullish in the outlook as it is well located in the ascending channel. At the moment, the pair even extends further above the trend line, heading toward the next immediate resistance of 111.10, which gives the pair more momentum to the upside. In the meanwhile, the pair keeps advancing above all of its SMAs, which indicates that the pair is gaining bullish traction. However, the pair might confront an adjustment as the RSI is nearly in the overbought readings whilst the pair has reached the upper bounce of the Bollinger band.

Resistance: 111.10

Support: 110.25, 109.72, 109.29

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

EURUSD weakens after hitting six-day highs at 1.1970, the highest since last Thursday. Failing to breach its resistance level of 1111 means that the pair is losing its short-term bullish tone. Consolidation will be likely to happen in the range of 1.1945 and 1.1860, which are the immediate resistance and support. On the daily chart, the pair remains bearish as it continues to trade below its SMAs; meanwhile, the MACD signals the note that the bearish momentum continues to be in control. To the upside, the pair needs to climb up above 1.207 to reverse its current bearish mode. Otherwise, the pair remains bearish at the time of writing.

Resistance: 1.1945, 1.2349

Support: 1.1695, 1.1492, 1.1290 

GBPUSD (Four- Hour Chart)

GBPUSD advances for the third session toward psychological resistance of 1.4000. Despite still falling below the ascending channel, the pair seems to be on the track toward its bullish mode. The recent bullish move is not over yet, as the RSI is still outside of the overbought territory and the MACD is positive, lending supports to bulls. To the upside, the pair is heading to its next immediate resistance of 1.3968; if the pair can successfully breach the level, then it is one step closer back to the bullish trend.

Resistance: 1.3968, 1.4017, 1.4072

Support: 13896, 1.3787

20210624
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Microsoft’s (MSFT) shares steadied after jumping to a record level, bringing its…

Microsoft’s (MSFT) shares steadied after jumping to a record level, bringing its market cap up to $2 trillion

20210623
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Market Focus

Stock futures opened slightly higher Tuesday evening, holding onto gains from the regular session. The three major indexes ended higher for a second straight day, and the Nasdaq Composite surged to a record high as technology stocks outperformed. Microsoft’s (MSFT) shares steadied after jumping to a record level, bringing its market cap up to $2 trillion.

The S&P 500 extended gains into a second day as the Fed chief said he’s got “a level of confidence” that prices will eventually come down while noting that it would be “very, very unlikely” to see the kind of 1970s-style inflation. In a testimony to the House Select Subcommittee Tuesday, Powell also said that a 5% inflation environment wouldn’t be acceptable, and urged patience at evaluating data on prices.

“So inflation is larger than they expected,” said Art Hogan, chief strategist at National Securities. “That part is true. But the part about that’s going to force their hand faster than we think is the part that he’s pushing back on. I think markets have calmed down about that.”

Earlier Tuesday, New York Fed President John Williams noted that a discussion about raising interest rates is still “way off in the future.” At the same time, his Cleveland counterpart Loretta Mester said very low rates for a long period and unconventional policy tools such as asset purchases can lead to too much risk-taking and financial stability issues.

Main Pairs Movement

Optimism returned to financial markets and weighed on the greenback. However, the dollar’s losses were limited and seemed corrective after last week’s surge. US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell testified before Congress on the Fed’s response to the pandemic.

High-yielding currencies posted modest intraday advances. The euro pair is currently trading at 1.1930, cable stands at 1.3940, while Aussie hovers around 0.7560. The loonie pair approached the 1.2300 level, while the ninja nears 2021 high at 110.96.

UK Health Minister Matt Hancock said covid-related data looks encouraging and suggests lockdown can fully end on July 19 as planned because a recent rise in cases is not resulting in deaths. On the other hand, concerns arose globally after the report of a new covid variant called Delta Plus, which may trigger new waves.

Little action around commodities. Gold keeps hovering around $ 1,780 per ounce, while crude oil prices retained gains. WTI settled at $73.00 a barrel, and Brent again stands on the $75.00 price level.

Cryptocurrencies were extremely volatile in the previous day. Bitcoin once tumbled below $30000, the first time since January, and now rebouned back to $33500. Ethereum alike plummeted to its lowest level since March and now struggled to get back to the $2000 price level.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold trades in a narrow range, around $1770ish, amid Powell’s testimony. In the near- term, bulls seem to be in control of gold as gold has breached the key resistance at $1770.95. In the meanwhile, both RSI and Bollinger band signal that gold still has a chance to the upside as the RSI is slightly above the oversold territory and gold is currently in the lower band of the Bollinger band, suggesting that gold is due to a bounce back. On the upside, if gold can climb to its next resistance around $1820, then it will confirm its bullish as it will trade above the 50 SMA. Otherwise, the downside momentum is still in control in the bigger outlook.

Resistance: 1786.38, 1811.25, 1836.12

Support: 1755.6, 1705.86

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

EURUSD edges higher above 1.1930 level during the American trading hour. From the technical perspective, the pair remains bearish in the short- term as it continues to fall within the descending channel. The pair keeps clinging around Fibonacci resistance, the 61.8% retracement at 1.1945. On the daily time frame, the pair is scheduled to the downside as it is unable to recover above the 20 SMA. The technical indicator, RSI, retreats from the previous oversold territory whilst the MACD continues to lend supports to the bears. All in all, the pair remains skewed to the downside unless it can advance and breach above the 20 SMA, which is around 1.2100 level.

Resistance: 1.1945, 1.2349

Support: 1.1695, 1.1492, 1.1290 

GBPUSD (Four- Hour Chart)

From the technical aspect, after the recent decline, GBPUSD reverses from bearish to bullish in the near- term. The bulls seem to be held and supported by the technical indicators; MACD is now bullish, lending supports to bulls, whilst the RSI is outside of the overbought territory, giving the pair rooms to extend further north. On the four-hour chart, the pair is heading to its next resistance at 1.3963. To turn bullish in a bigger outlook, the bulls need to break the price to the resistance level of 1.4139 to return to its former ascending channel. So far, the sterling is moving away from the descending trend line; further move of the pair will be affected by the announcement of the BoE’s meeting.

Resistance: 1.3963, 1.4017

Support: 1.3896, 1.3787

20210623
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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said inflation had picked up but should…

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said inflation had picked up but should move back toward the U.S. central bank’s 2% target once supply imbalances resolve

20210622
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Market Focus

Dow Jones futures, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures, were higher late Monday following the Dow Jones-led stock market rally. On Monday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.84% (118.5 points), while the S&P 500 rallied 1.4% (59.2 points). The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1.8% or 586 points. Among the Dow Jones leaders, Apple (AAPL) advanced 1.4% Monday, while Microsoft (MSFT) moved up 1.2% in today’s stock market; Tesla (TSLA) fell 0.4% Monday, as it battles to retake its long-term 200-day moving average.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said inflation had picked up but should move back toward the U.S. central bank’s 2% target once supply imbalances resolve. “Inflation has increased notably in recent months,” Powell said in written remarks prepared for his Tuesday testimony before the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis, citing increases in oil prices and a “rebound” in spending as the U.S. economy reopens. “As these transitory supply effects abate, inflation is expected to drop back toward our longer-run goal,” he said.

However, some Fed officials estimate that the central bank may need to tighten policy sooner than it expects. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said he favors starting the process of tapering the central bank’s ongoing bond purchases “sooner rather than later,” while his counterpart from St. Louis, James Bullard, called it “appropriate” that policymakers last week opened the tapering debate. Neither Bullard nor Kaplan votes on the Federal Open Market Committee this year.

Powell’s remarks reprised his opening comments at his June 16 press conference, following a policy meeting of the central bank. Investors will tune in to the hearing Tuesday for potential questions that shed more light on his view on the pace of the economic rebound and for how much longer the central bank should keep its monetary policy on an emergency footing.

Main Pairs Movement

The dollar underwent a correction due to its extreme overbought conditions, but it remains the strongest currency across the Forex board. It lost most of its gains in the previous day during the North America session amid solid equity rallies.

Euro pair corrected up to 1.1920, holding nearby at the end of the day. ECB’s President Christine Lagarde said that the outlook for the euro area economy is brightening as the pandemic situation improves but warned about the need to remain vigilant, suggesting that tightening would be premature.

Cable surged on the optimistic market mood despite worrisome comments from UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Johnson said that cases of the coronavirus Delta variant are still going up, and thus they need to be cautious on easing restrictions. He then added that data is looking good ahead of the July 19 deadline, but traveling will still be “difficult.”

Aussie trades around 0.7540, helped by the better performance of equities. Loonie pair plummeted over 100 pips daily, benefitting from the greenback’s corrective decline and soaring crude oil prices. WTI closed the day at $73.00 a barrel, while Brent climbed 2.20% during the day. Gold posted a modest daily advance. Spot gold settled at $ 1,784 a troy ounce.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold looks to pick up the recovery after dropping to the monthly low. In the near- term, it is expected to see some bulls on gold as it needs an adjustment from its oversold condition. From the technical indicators, both RSI and Bollinger band show that gold needs a rest from its bearish momentum. The RSI is currently near 30 level, indicating that gold is due to a bounce-back; at the same time, gold has reached the very lower band of the Bollinger band, which also suggests a bounce back from gold. At the moment, gold is clinging at the resistance level, 1780ish; to the upside, if gold can successfully breach the resistance, it will head toward 1811.25.

Resistance: 1786.38, 1811.25, 1836.12

Support: 1755.6, 1705.86

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

EURUSD recovers back to 1.1910 level to start the week as the time of writing, correcting extreme oversold conditions from last week. The pair remains bearish as it declined below the descending channel to a new low last week; despite showing a bounce back on Monday, the outlook remains bearish. After plunging sharply to April’s support level at 1.18760, the pair bounces back a little to its immediate resistance level at 1.1945. At the moment, the RSI is located at a 30ish level, which is close to the oversold territory, giving the pair room to bounce back for an adjustment. Moreover, the MACD seems to turn positive on the four-hour chart, lending supports to bulls. As the time of writing, EURUSD is trading along with the resistance level at 1.1945; if it can successfully breach the level, it will potentially head to the next resistance at 1.2070; otherwise, the pair might consolidate in the range of 1.1945 and 1.18760 in the near- term.

Resistance: 1.1945, 1.207, 1.2175

Support: 1.18760, 1.1695 

GBPUSD (Four-Hour Chart)

GBPUSD advances beyond 1.3900 today, extending the corrective pullback. From the technical perspective, the intraday retreat from the 1.3800 level could be attributed to a correction from the previous oversold condition. On the four-hour chart, GBPUSD remains bearish as it continues to fall below the descending channel; however, the short-term momentum seems to turn bullish as the technical indicator, RSI, is currently in the neutral position, giving the pair rooms to extend further north; in the meantime, the MACD has turned to positive, lending supports to bulls. To the upside, GBPUSD is expected to head toward the next immediate resistance at 1.3963, and 1.3896 will become the immediate support for the pair.

Resistance: 1.3896, 1.3963, 1.4017

Support: 1.3787

20210622
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